We called the Super Bowl back in August and I reaffirmed finale two weeks ago. The interim meant fawning over the delectable, high scoring, hate-free matchup in front of us, an outpouring of legacy love for Indianapolis Colts quarterback, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo ending one last 2009 campaign game with a game-clinching interception in an otherwise meaningless Pro Bowl. Also prop bets.
Alas, it's time for another ATG decision. I'll cut to the quick. The pick is New Orleans, 35-31. Here's why:
1. Every champion needs a stinker loss
a. Lost during Indianapolis' forfeited pursuit of a perfect season were an alarming number of close calls and last minute Manning drives. The Colts let the Jacksonville Jaguars score 31 points and spotted the Houston Texans a 17-point cushion. There's heroism and then there's bailing your little brother out of jail in the early morning for disorderly conduct. Human nature stresses that champions -- and just look to 42 of the last 43 NFL seasons -- must experience an uncomfortable, revealing defeat. A trap game for humility, to learn from.
b. Even the '72 Dolphins, the Super Bowl era's only undefeated champion, spring-boarded their run following a humiliating 24-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl VI.
c. New Orleans, coincidentally, was down 24-3 to the Miami Dolphins before rallying in Miami (site of Sunday's game) to win back on October 17. This is of no consequence to this particular argument, but it's a fun fact.
d. Thus, New Orleans looked flat and inflated in primetime against the Cowboys, blew an embarrassing game to a hapless division foe at home (Tampa Bay, week 16). The bandwagon lost steam, they looked...exposed.
e. Following an end run of stink bomb losses, the Saints rallied and destroyed the Arizona Cardinals to open up their postseason campaign, 45-17.
2. The best defense against Peyton Manning is a good offense
a. The consensus for playing Manning's perfect scheme (dude's been in the same system, with the same coordinator, since 1998, an unreal tenure given NFL's flimsy job market) is to come up with two to three blitz packages you save for the fourth quarter, throw pressure at him early, disrupt the timing with his weapons.
b. This strategy was implemented by Indy's previous playoff opponents, to fair success. The Ravens held Indy to under 300 yards of total offense, the Jets took an early 17-6 lead.
c. However, Peyton Manning will figure out what you're throwing at him and eventually score at will. It's a given. Unfortunately for New York and Baltimore, they couldn't match momentum with touchdowns.
d. In addition to leading the NFL in forced turnovers and counting on the health of cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, the Saints defense has one remarkable, overlooked edge: the NFL's top statistical offense has their back. That's 403 yards a game, 510 points, 64 touchdowns for New Orleans this season. Tops across three key categories.
e. As a corollary, much has been made of Peyton Manning's cerebral approach. It's true: he has an enormous forehead, but lest we forget the equally brainy tendencies of overachiever, Drew Brees, and guru Saints head coach/offensive whiz kid, Sean Payton. Two heads are better than one.
3. Personnel
a. This game will be about points, schemes, who scores last. Here, in a one game, winner-take-all format, I love what the Saints can do. More options, more weapons.
b. They have a more versatile, explosive backfield in Reggie Bush (a game-changing flex player you can plug in anywhere - the return game, slot receiver, an occasional Wildcat formation, reverses) and Pierre Thomas (a durable, steady, quick, traditional touchdown machine that recalls the steady hands of vertical runners like Terrell Davis). They have the luxury of a clock-controlling running game. Indy has neither talent as explosive, hasn't developed or committed to the running game ever and if they find themselves needing a running attack to, say, keep a relentless Saints offense off the field, the Super Bowl isn't the best time to rely on this facet of the game.
c. The Saints have better deep threat, big play receivers. They'll stretch the field early, loosen up Indy's reliable, bland cover 2 secondary which opens up the middle of the field for all sorts of zany slants, curls, Reggie Bush screens. The big play aces (in effect three stretching, burning playmakers in Colston, Meachem, Henderson) are the agents of chaos and linchpins for this mechanical juggernaut.
d. If these Saints were meant to be stopped, the superior, relentless Vikings pass rush would have done so two weeks ago. In the NFC Championship, Minnesota statistically crushed New Orleans in passing yards, rushing yards, time of possession, completions, but all of a sudden it's the fourth quarter and it's a 28-28 tie. I haven't seen a more opportunistic and versatile offensive unit since the '99 Rams.
4. Intangibles
a. First and foremost, there's no question New Orleans is the healthier team going into the Super Bowl. Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney is a sharp terror on the outside because of his footwork and hustle and how quickly he gets around tackles, at quarterbacks. His ankle renders him so ineffective and sluggish that Vegas had to go and move the game line from 5 ½ to 5.
b. Freeney lines up on the right side, the Saints love to run to the right side and score most of their rushing touchdowns to the right.
c. And how about common opponents? These would be the Dolphins, Patriots, Bills and Jets. Let's take a look:
- New Orleans outscored them a combined 137-68, fielded a perfect 4-0 record.
- Indianapolis (not counting the forfeited, ugly losses to the Bills and Jets) outscored the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets (when it counted in the playoffs) 92-74, with a 3-2 record.
- New Orleans beat two hall of fame quarterbacks.
- Indianapolis beat a rookie quarterback and a second-year quarterback who managed offenses and partly lost games because they couldn't produce points.
CORRECTION: The Cardinals also lost to both teams this year. My bad. Doesn't change much, except that Cardinals coach Ken Wisenhunt likes Indy.
d. The mental edge is complicated. When the Colts won it all in 2007, the game was in Miami. Sunday's game is in Miami. Veterans on talk radio love to emphasize comfort with the moment: advantage Colts.
e. However, the short-term memory of media has, simply put, disrespected New Orleans: they've been compared to the 2006 Chicago Bears, the 1994 San Diego Chargers and the hapless Elway Broncos of the '80s that were destroyed in one-sided Super Bowls. Expectations are low, Peyton Manning is the gridiron Stephen Hawking, the best quarterback of all-time, bigger than a ravaged city's dream season, playing to be inducted into the holy order of NFL signal callers. Just like Tom Brady a few seasons ago.
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This is minor, and meaningless, but the Saints comeback against the Dolphins was on Oct. 25th. You should know that, because we were constantly checking the scoreboard and our cell phones at Cowboys Stadium during the Falcons game.
The media is not disrespecting the Saints. Have you been watching ESPN this week? There is tons of Saints love going around. In fact, we're now at the point where pundits keep mentioning how it seems that all the writer's are picking Indy, but all of the personalities are taking the Saints. The only thing tipping the scales to the Colts is the betting public.
The Saints unquestionably have the more impressive '10 playoff run, but the win over Minnesota was due purely to resiliency. As you said, the Saints were soundly outplayed and they were gifted with 5 turnovers from a team that protects the ball. So that win is equal parts Vikes choke job and Saints seizing the moment. The Colts offense comes into this game as the most battle tested. They dominated 2 of the league's top 3 defenses and stuffed 2 of the top 5 rush offenses. Yes, the Saints bring a much better passing attack to the game, but their rush offense is a step down from what the Colts have already seen.
The common opponents point is worthless, because the Colts stopped trying halfway through the Jets game. Is there anybody that truly believes that the Jets and Bills would've beaten the Colts had they been trying? The Saints did look much better defeating the Pats than the Colts did, but that can be chalked up to the intensity of the Colts/Pats rivalry (only the best of the decade). Each team beat the Dolphins in games they had no right winning. Coming back from 24-3 and being on the short end of a 45/15 time of possession disparity are both impressive feats. I don't think one is better than the other, and they're both useless in this case. The Colts won't win if the Saints have that kind of time advantage and the Saints won't win if the Colts get a 21 point lead on them at any point.
The Colts have a better brain trust offensively than the Saints. I love what Payton/Brees do. Payton isn't afraid to go for killshots, but he's also not afraid to call idiotic plays (remember the reverse against the Bucs, I think a year or two ago, that cost the Saints a game they should've won). What they've done in New Orleans is incredible, no doubt. But, I can't go away from the pairing that won the most games in the past decade. Peyton/Moore is more of the proven commodotiy. Moore has been coaching longer that Sean has been alive, and Manning is the smartest player the game has ever seen.
The Colts' revealing loss is the Jets game, even though they essentially handed the game to New York (in the case of Painter, though, he literally handed the Jets the win). From that point forward everyone said the Colts made a huge mistake and that not going for 16-0 would come back on the Colts. They had to hear about it for the last month until they faced the Jets again. Tons of people were riding the Jets bandwagon and were ready to crucify Caldwell as soon as the Jets bounced the Colts from the playoffs.
1. Yes, media disrespect. The angle is consistently:
"New Orleans I'm really happy for you...but Peyton Manning is the best quarterback of ALL TIME."
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4887955
2. Common opponents are significant, because they detail intricacies of talent, strategy, approach. Going back to fact Cowboys beat both Packers and Patriots in 1996, it's been a highlighted stat every year.
3 . You really should get away from who won the most games of the decade because that's sort of a big problem for Manning: dude let 10 years of his winning, record-breaking prime pass with ONE title. Less than Pittsburgh and New England and tied with Baltimore, Tampa Bay. He's an amazing quarterback, but he's yet to have one season without a stinker, damaging loss. Frankly he should have 2-3 Lombardi trophies.
It's funny though, because he sort of allowed for this Super Bowl to happen: in the 2004 AFC title game, after constant harassment and physical defense, it was the Colts whining that declawed NFL secondaries and allowed for such pass-happy teams to get this far.
And New Orleans is just more talented and explosive on offense: 7 receivers with 35 catches. Nuts.
At least we agree New Orleans is more resilient.
Yeah, more fire to media disrespect.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2009/news/story?page=superbowlpicks10
29-12 Colts picks from ESPN personalities.
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heisman trophy or not, reggie bush was still the best college player of 2005
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