DEF NFL PREVIEW RAW

AFC East
New England Patriots (12-4)
Buffalo Bills (9-7)
Miami Dolphins (6-10)
New York Jets (4-12)

For the Jets, starting high-dollar rookie Mark Sanchez is both the right move and resigned acceptance of this year's outlook:  At Houston. New England. Tennessee. At New Orleans. At Miami. It'll be an 0-5 start to a long year. Buffalo's no-huddle, high-flying approach will work until it gets cold. The Dolphins, facing tougher scheduling and superior talent, start slow.

The Patriots lock this group up by about mid-October.






AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Cleveland Browns (5-11)

Same base hierarchy as last year, except for the Bengals.

I don't have HBO and cannot speak to Cincinnati's "Hard Knocks" hype, just like what I've seen since April. They've drafted smart and now field a front four strong enough (counting the Patriots preseason game) to reach the quarterback. In other words, to pressure and sack without compromising the secondary.

It wasn't the Giants Super Bowl, or even a game that means anything, but Cincinnati did it. Couple the improvement with healthy skills guys, a tough secondary and the 2005-07 swagger returns instantly. Softer schedule, improved running game, they'll contend.






AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Tennessee Titans (10-6)
Houston Texans (8-8)

No love for the burgeoning, darling Texans. Circumstance is in their way. One of the ten best teams in the league, the fourth best team in the division, better luck next year.

But what if Andre Johnson and Matt Shaub and Steve Slaton stay healthy? What if the defense plays up to its billing?

If these Gary Kubiak Texans were meant to win anything, it would have occurred last year. I wouldn't bet on the big three staying healthy, would you? And come fourth quarter, believe Schaub flinches before Peyton Manning. To quote the great Z-Ro, "I see bitch in his eyes."

The Jaguars return to form, ride Maurice Jones-Drew and revive the career of Troy Williamson, edge out Tennessee for second place.






AFC West
San Diego Chargers (13-3)
Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
Oakland Raiders (6-10)
Denver Broncos (3-13)

The Chargers will fire on all cylinders and destroy an awful cluster of teams. Their 2007 defense will tag team with their 2008 offense. It'll be a romp.

Kind of think Oakland can break out: solid line, solid defense, star power where it matters. It's just that incompetence permeates every administrative facet of this organization.






NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
New York Giants (10-6)
Washington Redskins (7-9)

Before Michael Vick's arrival, the NFC East was the most interesting, competitive, written about division in sports. Big markets. Big stories. Big contracts. Big legacies.

Before Michael Vick's arrival in Philadelphia, the Eagles looked good enough to win it all. Fast, poised, experienced, loaded. I'm an apologist for the guy but Vick will cause personnel meltdowns behind the scenes. Just ask my favorite NFL writer, Peter King:

"Philly has a decision to make about Vick and how he will be accounted for on the roster. It wouldn't be smart to use a situational quarterback as the emergency quarterback because if the player is used in the first three quarters, then the first and second quarterbacks are ineligible to play from that point on. So when the Eagles play Vick, it's likely they'll do so as a legitimate third quarterback -- and thus will likely take one special-teams-type player out of the lineup on that particular day. It's risky, and it'll make the job of special-teams coordinator Ted Daisher a vital one as the Eagles go forward.

Having Vick run around and make magic is all well and good, but if Andy Reid picks Vick to dress over, say, a defensive back who is an excellent gunner on the punt team, that decision could result in a long punt return. Interestingly, we'd probably never know it because Reid would never say, 'We had Michael active today at the expense of Player X.' But internally, it could be a hot potato on the coaching staff, with some assistants feeling that Vick is preventing a good kick-team player from performing."

There's also overwhelming hype and impossibly critical fans. Historically, these powerhouse units ('07 Cowboys, '07 Patriots, '06 Chargers, '04 Eagles, England in international soccer) inevitably contend, garner ratings, provide equal measures headlines and hope, and always fall short of a title.

The 1995 Dallas Cowboys became the last team with these preconditions of oozing controversy and suffocating talent to actually win. Michael Vick is an unnecessary ingredient in a perfectly balanced championship formula.

The signing of Chris Canty from Dallas to New York will be huge for the G-Men, but Tony Romo is undefeated against the Giants during the regular season.






NFC North
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Detroit Lions (3-13)

I'll play it conservative on the lingering offseason questions:

How do the Packers respond to the headlines of summer '09 and return to their '07 form?
By playing their little hearts out; defensively they're stout and sure-handed, offensively Aaron Rodgers has the goods to quarterback them for years to come and there's talent all over the place.

How does Jay Cutler do in Chicago and who catches the ball?
Don't worry about it, he'll be fine. Pencil Cutler in for 4,000 yards and 25 plus touchdowns. Kyle Orton threw to the same bunch of nobodies and was a fantasy football stat machine last year. Matt Forte catches well out of the backfield; Greg Olsen is a break out tight end; Devin Hester has too much talent to not evolve into a formidable wide out; Earl Bennett was Cutler's college roommate.  

Who wins the mammoth Brett Favre v. Packers games?
I think they split, each winning at home.

How does Brett Favre do in Minnesota?
Reasonably well, he knows the division, the system, has more of a rapport with these Vikings than those Jets, gets to play key winter games in a comfy dome, gets lots of open looks against eight-man fronts blockading Peterson,  I think all this is good for at least one more win than he mustered last year.

Is Matthew Stafford the answer for Detroit?
No.

Who wins this thing?
It'll be a tight race, I believe, won on opening day when the Bears visit the Packers. I'll take Chicago.






NFC South
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
Carolina Panthers (8-8)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

This will be the year the Saints play defense and Reggie Bush evokes his USC glory days.

Pierre Thomas will be monstrous running the ball; Jeremy Shockey will play like 2005; it'll come together for the most charming team in a wacky division with rotating champions.

Carolina is too old; Tampa Bay too young; Atlanta's road is too tough. The separation games will be won in the Louisiana Superdome, one of the NFL's most underrated home field advantages.



 


NFC West
Seattle (10-6)
Arizona (9-7)
San Francisco (7-9)
St. Louis (6-10)

According to a footballoustiders.com article I heard referenced in a podcast but cannot find archived on the site itself, Seattle's 2008 misery is largely because of injuries and the stats tell us they'll rebound.

They've looked good in the preseason and I'm buying it. Arizona, like most Super Bowl runners up this decade, will stumble. Lest we forget this is an 8-8 team last year that backslid into the postseason, hosted a playoff game as the default champ of a miserable division, then got impossibly hot with impossible breaks (Jake Delhomme's epic, six-turnover choke job, Philly's road upset at New York that allowed an 8-8 4th seed to host the NFC title game).

The 49ers have the NFL's easiest schedule and an impressive young head coach in Mike Singletary, so a jump to ten wins is reasonable, but I can't place them above the veteran 'Hawks or any team with Larry Fitzgerald.

- Ramon Ramirez




Editor's note: Thanks for staying with us. Tune into ATG's podcast Friday with J. Couch for the revelation of he and Ramon's respective playoff trees.